So, if you go back exactly 10 years, you see that they were $18-20k at that time. Doubling time of price in years is approximately 72/rate of return (a natural logarithm thing). Prices have more or less doubled in 10 years which is a 7.2% rate of annual return. That's good, but it's not the astronomical rate the 2012 posts suggested. (I think the doubling times and annual ROI were similar 2002-2012). I honestly think those who express shock at this phenomenon are not aware of the old saying "people who don't understand compounding *pay* interest; those who do, *earn* it."

It's the same with real estate which appreciates at an average rate of 3% which is the inflation rate which means in real dollars real estate is flat. But people don't get it. OMF, my house I bought in 1982 for $250K is now $1million! Yeah. About the rate of inflation for an asset held for 40 years, 3% ROI, doubling time, 20 years.

The other interesting thing, to me, is that the most desirable items all seem to have the same doubling times: M16s, HK sears, RDIAS, heck even MAC11s. I recall visiting a SOT in NW Albuquerque in about 2001 and him showing me his "entry level" gun: SWD NIB 9mm, $3000. Using my above formula, doubling time 10 years at 7.2% annual increase and they should have doubled twice then, so about $12k. And they're right there:

https://dealernfa.com/shop/m10-9mm-mac-in-powder-springs-excellent-23004470/. Not quite 7.2%, but quite close, and not NIB.

Projecting into the future, in 10 years, say 2032, RDIAS will be $80k. Think that's absurd? Yeah, that's the point of the resurrection of this thread. Those guys in 2012 thought $20k was absurd. They should have bought every one that came up for that price, if they had the $.