Have Colt M16A2s broke the $40,000 mark?

[secondofangle]

The problem with getting out or not getting in, is that you don't know when. If you're like me and think the S&P500 is priced too high, God bless you. I've been in bonds for about 4 years and I've lost a lot of $$$ by not staying in. I forget who said it but "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." if you're buying for the LONG TERM, you almost can't pay too much. If you're buying for the short term, and hope to flip, yes you can lose your shirt, or worse.

If anybody who buys a $50,000 Colt M16A2 today holds it for 10 years, I doubt he will be sad. Worst case is he breaks even has a lot of fun with it, or that he sees prices have drooped and he holds onto it.

If Hey *doesn't* but and they go to $75k in the next years with no dip in the meantime, well, that's self-explanatory.

 

[KickStand]

One of the Colt/Keosayian remakes marked "Colt's MFG CO INC" no less. Post 1989 receiver.

I was thinking the same thing. 1 of 20 approved by the atf?


When I initially got into transferable MG’s, I thought this is a great investment and something I can enjoy in the meantime. I then had two boys (thank God) and said well I’ll likely never sell them (maybe one or two) and instead I’ll pass them down to them. However, with the way everything is going with the country, I’ll be surprised if we still have transferable’s in the next 30 years. All it takes is one mass shooting and they’ll be GONE. Therefore, I just hope my young boys will at least be able to enjoy them.

I think the prices of M16s are crazy at the moment and I think it’s in part to some shady auctions, free market, Gov handouts and inflation.

 

[ScottinTexas]

If I own one of the Precious Rings / BitCoins / 1971 Mustang Mach 1's / HK MP5's and the collector / investor market increases by 100% in a month.....I'm good with that.

Too bad for the fraidy cats.

It favors those willing to take a risk.

It makes the small community of machine gun owners winners and rewards their risk.

 

[Samuel_Hoggson]

Arguing with the market is a fool's errand. Even if it's partly b/c there are so many fools participating.

This one's not difficult to understand tho. "Durable goods" - to include M16A2s - are valued in a depression.

Why does 2021 look different than 1929? USD was backed by something in 1929, so could not be "used" to mask the crash. If our fiat USD falls fast enough, stocks rise. M16A2s, as well.

The monetarist's definitions (MMT) of inflation are crap useful to state media, and disconnected from the economic reality consumers experience every day.

 

[ScottinTexas]

This one's not difficult to understand tho. "Durable goods" - to include M16A2s - are valued in a depression.

Why does 2021 look different than 1929? USD was backed by something in 1929, so could not be "used" to mask the crash. If our fiat USD falls fast enough, stocks rise. M16A2s, as well.

What I've observed is that stock market crashes happen for any number of reasons and MOST of the time, the panic that ensues causes a run for cash and the cost of every physical asset, including gold drops along with stock prices.

That's also when we get all the economists and columnists talking about 'runaway deflation' which contributes to this mass selling.

Right now there is literally $Trillions in excess cash flowing through all aspects of our economy, and folks are feeling secure and 'wealthy' and buying a lot of discretionary items. But if the S&P dropped 50% like it did in 2000, I would expect this trend would reverse immediately and we'd be talking about great deals on some MG's. The 2007-2009 meltdown I think correlates with the flat and often downward prices in many if not most of the guns shown the the Machine Gun Price guide. While nobody believes all of those values precisely, I think the general trends the charts show have merit. Too bad they don't go back as far as 1999; that would be interesting.

Having said that, the future will probably prove me wrong, as I've seen repeatedly that even those highly educated economists rarely make accurate predictions nor can they convincingly explain cause and effect after the fact. Example: I and a lot of others thought we would have major inflation after the Fed's response to the 2008-9 financial crisis....and we didn't. The best explanation I've heard after the fact is totally unrelated 'Globalization' drove consumer prices down.

Much of this is just unknowable in real time. But we can pretty much bank on desirable items existing in fixed quantities that can't be reproduced, like land and classic cars and machine guns, have long term increased in value - but not in a linear fashion.

Just my opinion, and I'm probably wrong.

 

[Gaujo]

Classic cars are going to tank after gas stations become rare. If you've got a mclaren or a Ferrari you might not notice. But mid tier collectible car owners are going to loose their shirts.

 

[ScottinTexas]

Unless someone comes up with a battery system that can get a 5-minute electrolyte transfusion OR hydrogen powered / fuel cell cars emerge, folks will be driving gasoline / diesels for decades. But your point is fair and one I've thought about also.

I watch a lot of these car-building and collecting shows and there's no doubt that entire hobby / industry is going to change.

But consider this: pre-smokeless powder firearms have continued to increase in value despite the scarcity of commercially available black powder cartridges. They are still rare, collectible and rarely get fired. I suspect true and valuable classic cars, including American muscle cars will not be impacted much for the same reasons. If there's a market for it, gasoline will be refined and available but probably very expensive. But a guy with a collectible car won't care much about that, like a guy with an MP5 vs. the cost of 9mm ammo.

Hell, most of these cars sit in essentially private museums and never get driven. Gasoline availability is kind of a non-issue.

I do worry that at some point punitive gasoline taxes will make it uneconomic for normal folks driving a non-collectible ICE vehicle. But most of us here will be long dead when that happens.

 

[JoshNC]

Yep it's fascinating. Meanwhile this totally legit POUSG A2 fetched "just" $39,000. It makes no rhyme or reason to me why some of the final prices are what they are. https://www.gunbroker.com/item/903303261

Penny start no reserve auctions always hammer higher than auctions that start with a near market price. The penny start no reserve brings out the gamblers and competitive addicts. It’s totally repeatable.

 

[secondofangle]

Agree with the Penny auction. It is only fear that scares the rube sellers away from penny auctions. And it’s herd mentality among the buyers - people very often don’t know much about the items so they don’t know if they’re legit or what they’re worth. Once they see 10+ bids they’re like “this must be legit”! THEN they do aome actual digging and learn yeah an M16A1 is easily worth $30,000. So they bid at 20k. Now they do more research thinking “I may actually win!” At some point the reference frame changes to “I’m going to own this for $25k, it will be a steal!” Now once they’re out bid they consider it a “loss” which Prospect Theory from economics says will be very painful and motivating, the prospect of a loss. So they bid up towards and over FMV. As the auction goes on, this process repeats with multiple buyers, reinforcing it.

This M16, sold by a tyro who made an initial inaccurate descrition that I think derailed the auction, got $28k, so it was a botched auction or there’s a $3-7k premium for A1 over M16.

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/905157052

 

[secondofangle]

This auto marked A2 was posted on Sturm in 2018 for $35k. By AZGUNWORKS. Thread resurrected in the last month or so and who bought it? Tony Veronesi, the same seller of the above linked M16 on GB. Anybody wanna bet if we will see Veronesi selling an Auto marked A2 with a penny auction on GB in the coming months? Whoever above said “the GB price is not the real price, the real price is what it sells for on Sturm” will soon be eating humble pie, as more guys like Tony get on “machine gun arbitrage” and take the spread between Sturm and GB prices.

http://www.sturmgewehr.com/forums/index.php?/topic/11149-colt-m16a2-auto-marked-transferable-35000/

 

[sleepy]

I see a Sendra listed for 22k on Monday and still for sale. Definitely a difference between sturm and gb on prices.

 

[secondofangle]

That’s an arbitrage opportunity - buy for $22 and resell on GB for ~$27k with a Penny auction

 

[Gaujo]

That’s an arbitrage opportunity - buy for $22 and resell on GB for ~$27k with a Penny auction

6 months later... Only a deal for an SOT.

 

[secondofangle]

Correct. Like the guy I mentioned above. Somebody will always take advantage of a market price discrepancy it’s how markets become “efficient”

 

[rck12]

Concerning escalating or outrageous MG prices, get use to it IMO. Here are some reasons, taken in part or whole, no specific order:

The huge amount of new personal wealth accumulated over the past 10-15 years.

COVID et al

The amazing rapid rise of progressive socialism...defund the police as an example.

The declining availability of inventory.

The election of Biden/Harris.

The unforeseen recent rise of China.

In closing, the vast amount of the population do not know that it is legal to own a MG...food for thought huh?

 

[Tall Pine]

That’s an arbitrage opportunity - buy for $22 and resell on GB for ~$27k with a Penny auction

@secondofangle You really think a Sendra could fetch that much on GB?

 

[HighriseATX]

https://www.gunbroker.com/Item/906176731

50K baby!

 

[secondofangle]

Yea that seems to be the new normal. Rube got $45k for an A2 in the past week too, but he’s not getting as much as Sienna bc he doesn’t understand the penny auction concept

Several A1s recently got $33k, a Sendra got $29k, and a colt SP1 conversion got 25k, the latter again a Ruben gun that could have gotten more i wager with a penny auction

The sky is the limit boys

 

[mattnh]

one issue with penny auctions for sellers is that GB occasionally has outages and if
Your auction happens to end during one of their outages, then there no bidding
war at the end…

Can also happen at live auctions where there is an internet outage
During bidding - in that case on site bidders can get some deals/steals

 

[Hey...]

https://www.gunbroker.com/Item/906176731

50K baby!

All high roller sales from the same seller.